February forecast synoptic summary

Week 1 from the 1st-7th February will initially see low pressures run northwest of Scotland and towards Norway with higher pressure across the south by the 3rd, but by the 4th a further deep low pressure system running across the north west by early on the 5th into the 6th and a secondary low deepening and possibly swinging NE across the south or Midlands and into the North Sea. By the 7th a chilly polar flow from the N-NW across all parts.

In week 2, from the 8th-14th a chilly polar maritime flow will dominate across all parts initially but further fronts into the west by the 9th as a low pressure system runs NE'wards across the northern UK on the 10th but with a colder PM flow behind it by the 11th, a blocking high pressure area may ridge north across the mid Atlantic for a few days at this time, but by the 13th its ridge maybe building into the NW  and as it sinks south east on the 13th into the 14th, a milder TM or RPM westerly flow returning in the north and west and then SW'ern and central areas too.

From the 15th- 21st February the more westerly based flow continuing with further low pressure dominating the Atlantic bringing periods of TM airmasses then PM airmasses & some short lived ridging in between systems.

By the last week of February a more mobile westerly biased set up will probably continue but the odds are greater than in January of a more polar arctic interlude developing for at least a short time.

 

February forecast weekly weather summary

Week 1 from the 1st-7th February will initially see a strong W'ly flow across the UK with low pressure northwest of Scotland and a deeper low (around 968mb) running close to the Shetlands by evening bringing storm winds to the far north & NW again. This may well be a named storm (Henry) by UKMO. This will run towards southern Norway as a band of rain sweeps SE across all parts and bring much chillier polar air in its wake across all parts with wintry showers, giving accumulations on high ground in the north.

Higher pressure across the south by the 3rd, as winds reduce, with a frosty night in the north and then a generally milder W-SWly run with rain at times for all parts by the 4th and further deep low pressure with increasing wind & rain seems likely to affect the north & NW by early on the 5th. This could be very deep (955mb) with storm winds in its circulation and may also become a UKMO named storm (storm Imogen). A secondary low seems set to swing NE up through southern Ireland and deepen as it does so later on the 5th and into the 6th across the UK then run into the North Sea (pressure falling to around 955-965mb, and possibly lower, with the potential for this to be named also as storm Jake) bringing further wind and rain to the south & west, with severe gales in exposed parts of the south and SW  whilst there could be snow on the northern edge in the north on high ground.  The week ending with a chilly polar flow from the N-NW across all parts as wintry showers run SE in the flow with accumulations in parts of the north and allow a frosty night.

Generally, temperatures will be near or slightly below average for most in the south & east esp by night. The north will be somewhat below average. Rainfall will be above average for most parts and wet in the north west and west but possibly nearer average in the far SE and east.  Sunshine rather below average for most parts but perhaps a little nearer in the east.

 

In week 2, from the 8th-14th February it currently looks most likely that a chilly polar maritime flow will dominate across all parts initially on the 8th bringing wintry showers into exposed parts of the north & west but keeping it mainly dry and bright elsewhere after early frosts as pressure rises. The weak ridge soon breaking down allowing further fronts into the west by the 9th, perhaps preceded by some sleet & snow in the north and over the Welsh mountains. The low pressure running across the northern UK on the 10th bringing some more rain and locally strong winds to most parts before running into the North Sea and allowing a colder polar maritime flow to return across all parts by the 11th, bring a return to a showery regime, wintry in places with localised hill snow accumulations and frosty nights. Some indications suggest that the high pressure be rather stronger & will ridge across the Atlantic for a few days at this time, allowing the colder air to persist and be a little more vigorous in its southwards penetration through the 11th and 12th. By the 13th a ridge maybe building into the NW bringing a drier period here but still a risk of coast wintry showers in the east and NE. As it sinks south east on the 13th into the 14th, a milder westerly flow returning in the north and west and then SW'ern and central areas too.

Temperatures will generally be near average in the south & central parts but slightly below average for most northern parts; rainfall will be generally near average for most western and northern parts but possibly below average in the east and perhaps the SE as well. Sunshine probably around or slightly above average for most parts.

 

From the 15th-21st February it is likely the synoptic patterning will revert again to a more westerly based flow at present and it seems most likely that low pressure still looks set to dominate the Atlantic but the maritime airmass will be modified by cool seas by this time of the year and there will also be a tendency for polar maritime air to be quite predominant as well. So, periods of wind and rain with hill snow in the north will alternate with colder PM shots of air bringing wintry showers, through the week. There may well be some cold night if ridges happen to intervene overnight with frost and icy patches about. Winds will be more moderate than in the first half of February but there may still be localised gales in the exposed north & west.

Temperatures are likely to be near or below average in the north, and locally chilly in Scotland & N Ireland but southern & central regions may stay nearer average both by night and day. Rainfall near average generally in most SE & eastern areas but central & western parts well see slightly above average amounts and sunshine generally slightly above average for most eastern & SE'ern parts though possibly below average in the north & west.

 

By the last week of February we have low confidence and would (still) like to forecast a pattern change finally to a chillier more blocked or polar regime, it does seem that this will happen eventually this winter/spring for a time but it may take until early March to do so, it still seems more likely given the positive sea water and atmospheric temperature profiles at present that a more mobile set up will continue but the odds must be greater than in January of this more polar arctic (or continental) shot happening but at present perhaps the likelihood of the last week being at least similar to the first three is still greater.

Temperatures near average, with near average rainfall in the northwest but below average in the south east; slightly above average sunshine in the east but near average sunshine for most though perhaps slightly below average in the north & NW.

Sea temperatures seem likely to continue to be slightly above normal around the UK coasts and rather above on the SE'ern coasts but slightly below average in the south west & Irish Sea. Soil moisture will remain rather above average in all areas except possibly the SE where it'll be nearer average.

 

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