For many years I have been using the expression “Global Warming is the ultimate weapon of mass destruction” Why?

By way of an answer let me say that, without a doubt, it is likely to kill more people than human conflict ever has and is one of the most serious things facing our planet at the moment. It is likely to trigger major catastrophic events, such as flooding, storms, famine and drought. We only borrow the planet and it is our duty to hand it onto our children and grandchildren in better shape, NOT much worse.

We CAN influence Global Warming if you “Turn Down, Switch Off, Recycle, Walk”

So what is behind Global Warming? The answer in a nutshell is ‘The enhanced Greenhouse Effect’. Without it we would freeze to death as the mean temperature of the Earth would be around -180C. Instead the temperature is around 150C, ideal for life. Carbon Dioxide, Water Vapour, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and other minor gases in the atmosphere act like panes of glass in a greenhouse, or a blanket, keeping in some of the heat we receive from the sun, instead of it escaping back into space. That was fine but now there are far more layers of the ‘blanket’ than there should be (more gases in the atmosphere) and the Earth is getting too warm.

Carbon Dioxide amounts in the atmosphere were more or less constant until the Industrial Revolution but have risen at an ever increasing rate since and as a result the temperature of the Earth has risen in tune by about 0.60C, most of that since 1970. In the EU every person produces 11 tonnes of Carbon Dioxide a year! Amounts in the atmosphere have increased by 35% and are now higher than at any time in the last 650,000 years. Methane, largely from tips, cattle and paddy fields has doubled and is far more effective as a ‘blanket’ than Carbon Dioxide, although there is less of it. Nitrous Oxide, from fertilizers and cars, is over 300 times as effective!

Believe it or not the Greenhouse Effect was first recognised in 1896 and the scientific community have been publicising it for years. Unfortunately, until recently, much of this fell on deaf ears (and in George Bush’s case still do!!) and in many ways it is too late to do anything to stop it, although if we act quickly we should be able to stabilise the effects in about 100 years time.

We can all see the effects. The seasons have shifted (here in the UK the growing season has increased by 10 days). Diseases have become more widespread. Trees have died. Animals have lost their habitat. Glaciers have melted. The Arctic ice has shrunk. The sea has risen some 15cm, already flooding places like Tuvalu. Floods and storms have become more frequent, such as Katrina which produced more energy than the US grid does in several weeks, as it devastated the Southern States.

So what of the future? If there is a future!! Forecasting is notoriously difficult (as I found in 1987!!) However, here in the United Kingdom we have some of the best computers (10 billion calculations a second) and brains in the business and we have a reasonable idea of what to expect, if we continue to live as at present.

The Earth will continue to warm up and, if we don’t cut back, temperatures could increase by almost 60C, which is more than the change between the last ice age and now! The change will be most noticeable in Northern Latitudes where the perma-frost will continue to melt, causing oil pipelines to buckle and houses to sink in the mud. Polar bears will loose their sources of food and may have to move into townships to survive as the Arctic ice disappears.

In Africa drought and starvation threatens not only man but hippos, gazelles and freshwater fish. The continent is hot enough as it is and it is predicted to get even hotter.

Close to home the summer we had in 2003, with record high temperatures, may well become normal or even cool by 2060. Many deaths will result. The current water shortage could well become far worse as the summers become much warmer and drier, while not sufficiently compensated by milder and wetter winters. Our grandchildren are unlikely to see snow and many parts of Britain could be under water. We could even find that Tropical diseases, like malaria, become endemic and there will be an increase in skin cancer due to the sunnier summers.

However not all is doom and gloom. Already we are producing ‘Gold Medal’ wines and we will be able to take over from France in producing ‘Champagne’. Our olive crop will be bountiful and we will have to adapt to a Mediterranean style of life, siesta and all.

Other parts of the World won’t fair as well. Winter sports will be unheard of in Scotland and Australia. Even in the Alps many of the present resorts will have little or no snow. Those that do could find many more avalanches and little skiing below 6000ft.

Some of our present holiday areas such as the Maldives could be under water and the coral reefs ‘bleached’ by the high sea temperatures. Already the Great Barrier Reef in Australia is severely damaged. The Mediterranean will suffer from more increased pollution, heat stress, forest fires and drought.

In Florida and the Caribbean the sea level rise will drown many of the wetlands and everglades, not helped by more violent hurricanes. Perhaps Katrina was just a taster!!

The great Amazon forest has already suffered unprecedented drought with many trees dying. If this continues the ‘Lungs of the World’ could become just a gasp.

But, there is also a consensus that the weather could get cooler!! What if all this caused the Gulf Stream to divert or even shut down? Unlikely, but possible, as it has happened before. Global warming could well produce more fresh water due to ice melting and increased rainfall and this will alter the density of the sea water and hence the way the Gulf Stream works in which case the UK will be 3-50C cooler NOT warmer, although probably not for at least 150 years. You pays your money and takes your choice.

So what can we do? To quote a certain supermarket “every little helps”.

First don’t overheat your home, fit replacement windows and insulate. Place your fridge in a sensible place away from heat and defrost regularly. Don’t set your hot water temperature above 600C and take a shower rather than a bath (or share!!). Switch off lights and replace by energy-saving bulbs. Don’t leave anything on ‘stand-by’ or chargers plugged in. Use your tumble drier, washing machine or dishwasher sparingly. Recycle as much as possible and buy items in reusable containers or refills. Buy local produce. Plant a tree.

Finally ‘WALK’. It will do us all good to get more exercise as we are fast becoming unhealthy and obese as a nation. If you must drive don’t speed, check for correct tyre pressures, use low-viscosity oil and keep the air-conditioning off.

You Control Climate Change and now is the time to act. We MUST save the planet.