Monthly retrospective for September 2015

September saw temperature anomalies range from just above average in far northern parts (Lerwick was 0.8C above average) and well below average in parts of the south Midlands (Hereford & Benson were 1.7C below average). One of the warmest places by day was Hurn with a mean maximum temperature of 18.8C. The coldest was Shap Fell with a mean minimum of 5.4C. However, most of the UK was only just below average in fact. Pressure was about 2mb above average over most northern parts and near average in the south.

September was a notably wet month in places at first in the south east & east but became much drier by the end. However, parts of the east still saw above average, Wattisham saw about 125% of its normal amount of rain but elsewhere it was generally rather dry. Much of Western Scotland & NW England and N Wales & N Ireland saw just 30-35% of its average rainfall.

Generally, it was rather sunnier than

As June ends on a warm note, despite a few thundery outbreaks, it does seem that we might be in for a decent summer now. The water temperatures around our SE and south coasts have risen above normal and the weather pattern looks set into a reasonably ‘blocked’ set up as the Azores high pressure stays north of its usual position, often extending well to the north east across the United Kingdom.

This may be the kind of summers then that offers long dry warm periods of weather interspersed with short wetter spells, the type of weather that some climate change experts tell us we can expect more of in the future here in the UK, as we experience the effects of global warming. As it stands June 2009 was eventually fairly warm and fairly dry, despite the cool start & thundery breakdowns some experienced in the second half .

We can cope by choosing wise strategies to minimise the

Last month I discussed how January 2005 was notable for some very stormy weather. This month I want to mention how the second half of February in 2005 then went on to become the coldest for nineteen years, and the snowiest period for sometime – notable not for its intensity in terms of severe cold (daytime maxima were between 2C and 5C), but for its length and the amount of snow that fell across north east and SE England.

Initially the first half of February was nothing unusual, a relatively quiet period following the storms of January. It was not until the 19th, after a weak frontal system moving south had cleared the UK, that a northerly flow developed in a polar air mass, cold enough to support snow in heavy showers that fed into eastern coastal districts throughout the afternoon. The northerly flow continued on the 20th with further sleet and snow showers chiefly though not exclusively across coastal parts exposed to the north wind.

19th February- the start of

The Whitsun late May Bank Holiday can be a hit & miss affair weatherwise .. in theory by late May the summer is fairly close by and the weather set hopefully set fair but it is seldom the case that things are quite as promising it seems and the Whitsun of 2007 was a good case to prove the point, as a deep depression developed close to southern England.

Weather models had struggled to develop it very well beforehand but when development took place it was somewhat more marked than models anticipated. By early on the Whit Sunday the low had reached a maximum depth west of Sevenstones near the Scilly Isles of 981mb. At the time the surface winds were still lagging behind the development, however these soon increased and gusts to over 60kts (70mph) were observed over Brittany.

Along with the winds rain became extensive across England with overnight totals near or above 13mm across parts of the SW as temperatures struggled to reach double figures

It's been a wet summer so far, there can be no dispute about that. With two exceptional periods of heavy rain falling, affecting the north of England in June and across parts of central southern England more recently on the 19th-21st July.

The three month period from May-July will have been the wettest recorded in England since reliable rainfall records begun in around 1720. What are the precedents for the late summer after this?

The three worst summers recorded as a whole were probably 1907, 1954 and 1956 in the last century. These were rated as the worst in Manchester in that period, using a specially constructed 'summer index'. However in terms of poor Julies, the period from 1936-1940 was probably one of the worst periods in the last century. July 1936 was the wettest of the century over England and Wales with some areas seeing 300% of the average. Locally for example,

As it been so cold recently I thought it might be worth taking a look at Decembers' when we have marvelled not at the cold and snow but at the warmth. They do occur regularly and although the obvious solution to many of those wanting a warm Christmas is to jet off somewhere well south (very well south in fact!..) sometimes in the right set ups it can almost feel warm in the Uk in December. Three main synoptic situations can lead to this.

The first is when very mild tropical air reaches our shores from the Azores in a strong SW'ly regime. It will usually be very moist though so cloudy with often copious rainfall too. Sometimes though if cloud breaks up enough to the east of high ground it can feel pleasantly warm in sunshine. The mean daily temperatures occasionally may reach as high as 12C across England in such a set up.

The second is when a light northerly flow descends in the south along the South Downs, if sunny and well shelteted from the wind,south coast resorts especially

Whilst January 2010 looks relatively settled and indeed it has been settled for some time now this is quite unusual for the time of year. January is more often than not likely to be a wet and windy affair and 2005 was no exception to this. At the start of the month plenty of active Atlantic depressions ploughed across the northern half of the UK; a deep low ran across the north on the 8th causing minor damage. However, another particularly intense storm developed on the 11th-12th January. The low pressure responsible for it was centred well to the west of Ireland on the 11th but began to deepen rapidly as it approached the north west of Scotland during the day bringing a spell of damaging winds. By early on the 11th the most intense upper forcing associated with a sharpening upper trough was about to engage a surface low producing explosive cyclogenesis that occured over a very tight thermal gradient. The depression was thus expected to "bomb" over the following 30 hrs - and would then

The period from the 18th -19th August 2004 saw a very unsettled period with a deep Channel low giving the UK 'a near miss. The Boscastle flooding event hasd occured o the 16th and continuing the very wet and generally unsettled theme across the UK, Wednesday 18th August brought further heavy showers, thunderstorms and flooding. Gale force winds occurred later in the extreme south although the worst of the winds, which peaked at storm force (F10) over north western France, kept offshore.

A wrap around occlusion with associated heavy rain swirled around a low pressure centred over Northern Ireland during the day and left those to the south of it, in England and Wales, in a showery regime. The heavy rain associated with the occlusion barely moved throughout the day causing flooding across the south of Shetland and the NE of Scotland with a total of 75mm recorded at Lerwick in the 24 hours to 12Z on the 19th. The storms also left over 25,000 homes in the NE

The period from the 6th-13th July in 1923 was very warm/hot and at times, but notably thundery.

In London though it was most notable for the spectacular thunderstorm of 9th-10th July 1923. As a slack area of low pressure stagnated over the southern UK for a few days before, temperatures rose to 29C on the 9th in both parts of London and also at Tunbridge Wells (Kent). The storm began at 11pm in the London area and lasted until about 5am, the next morning. There were 6900 lightning flashes seen in Chelsea, London in the 6 hour period, an average of nearly 1 every 3 seconds. Over 50mm of rain fell in a 15 mile wide strip from Hampstead, North London, which reported about 62mm, Kew reported 52mm and then south to the coast at Brighton, with as much as 82mm at Seaford (East Sussex); many houses were struck by lightning, and some caught fire; forty fire related calls were reported to the London Fire Brigade with a large house at Walton on the Hill (Surrey) completely destroyed. Interestingly

After our story about wet August's last month we warned you not too expect too much from the month, and we were -sadly- quite right to do so! It was a pretty dreadful month all in all. So we thought this month we would be more positive and look at some September;s in the last century that delivered more than they might have been expected to do, as the first month of Autumn. Recently, we have seen a run of very good September's in the last decade in fact.

Almost a century ago now, 1914 is remembered as the second month of the first world war but was also dry and sunny across the UK. However -generally- most Septembers were not that good in the period and we have to wait till 1921 to see another decent month when it was dry and sunny. 30C was reported at Southend on the 9th with a long period of drought. There was a late heatwave in 1926 with Camden Square (London) reporting 32.2C on the 19th.1929 was very warm too; in fact the third warmest of the century (only 1949 and 1999 were